For as long as most people can remember, UK municipal finance has been safe and boring. In the wild days of the 1980s, Hammersmith & Fulham council almost went bust speculating in derivatives, and was saved by a landmark House of Lords ruling. Since then, UK council borrowing has been tightly constrained by central government while derivative use has been banned.
Then again, the finance industry loves to innovate around regulation. It turns out that UK local authorities are still involved in derivatives after all. Many years ago, bankers found a way of embedding the pesky contracts inside perfectly legal loans, using so-called lender’s option borrower’s option (LOBO) agreements. These bank loans attracted councils because they offered a cheaper rate than offered by central government.
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What a poor analysis, no depth no understanding of vega trading, no insight.
There is a story here around the quality and independence of the advise received but the real questions have been missed again.
2/10 for effort and understanding
[…] In my previous LOBO article, I worked with derivatives consultant Gary Kendall to come up with a market valuation of Kent’s LOBO £442 million portfolio, which currently stands at £735 million. At Redcar & Cleveland they use “Bloomberg’s proprietary model for Bermudan cancellable swaps” which in the most recent accounts results in a 60 per cent premium to face value. […]
[…] Kent’s audited accounts represent LOBO loan liabilities at just £200 million, whilst Nick Dunbar’s analysis shows a ‘mark to market’ actual loan value in excess of £700 million. As Nick Dunbar notes, the difference between the book and real LOBO loan values represents the entire amount of Kent Count…! […]
[…] Kent’s audited accounts represent LOBO loan liabilities at just £200 million, whilst Nick Dunbar’s analysis shows a ‘mark to market’ actual loan value in excess of £700 million. As Nick Dunbar notes, the difference between the book and real LOBO loan values represents the entire amount of Kent Count…! […]
[…] Kent’s audited accounts represent LOBO loan liabilities at just £200 million, whilst Nick Dunbar’s analysis shows a ‘mark to market’ actual loan value in excess of £700 million. As Nick Dunbar notes, the difference between the book and real LOBO loan values represents the entire amount of Kent Count…! […]
[…] Kent’s audited accounts represent LOBO loan liabilities at just £200 million, whilst Nick Dunbar’s analysis shows a ‘mark to market’ actual loan value in excess of £700 million. As Nick Dunbar notes, the difference between the book and real LOBO loan values represents the entire amount of Kent Count…! […]
[…] At Kent County Council, the difference between what Kent say their LOBO loans cost and the actual repayment cost is more than the councils annual social welfare budget. […]
[…] At Kent County Council, the difference between what Kent say their LOBO loans cost and the actual repayment cost is more than the councils annual social welfare budget. […]