Is size becoming a risk for S&P 500 stocks?

29 November 2018ArticlesS&P 500Nick Dunbar

The recent correction in S&P 500 stocks saw a reversal in the big-is-good trend and favoured some unfashionable sectors

Collins wedge pushes internal credit models towards irrelevance

2 November 2018BanksBasel rules, Dodd-Frank Act, Federal Reserve, JP Morgan, PNC Financial, Wells FargoNick Dunbar

The Collins amendment has become a binding capital constraint for the biggest US banks. Does this support the Fed’s argument for rolling back the advanced approaches provisions of Dodd-Frank?

The Book of Why

14 October 2018Book Reviewsartificial intelligence, Bayesian probability, scienceNick Dunbar

Judea Pearl’s causal modelling and a critique of AI

Year of the MAGA stock

11 September 2018Articlescompetition, research & development, technology, volatilityNick Dunbar

Just four S&P 500 companies gained $1 trillion of market cap this year. Was this prophesised by a trio of academics?

Looking in SEC disclosures for the next LTCM

15 August 2018Articles, Fundsfinancial reporting, hedge funds, leverage, LTCM, SECNick Dunbar

The SEC is cracking down on hedge funds that fail to provide Form PF disclosures. Risky Finance has turned the published statistics into a visualisation tool and asks whether a new LTCM could be lurking in the data.

Turkey’s crisis in six charts

15 August 2018Articles, EconomicsEmerging markets, TurkeyNick Dunbar

Turkey faces an economic crisis as its dispute with the US escalates. We highlight Turkey’s financial vulnerabilities with six charts.

How Goldman punished its FICC failures

1 August 2018Banksbonuses, Goldman Sachs, remuneration, tradingNick Dunbar

As David Solomon replaces Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs is rejigging its trading business in the wake of lacklustre results. Our new remuneration tool shows how the bank punished underperforming staff last year.

Tracking the frontier markets debt bubble

23 July 2018EconomicsAfrica, Emerging markets, frontier markets, government bondsNick Dunbar

Frontier market sovereigns are splurging on new borrowing just as investors are cooling on the asset class. A Risky Finance visualisation tool identifies the countries you need to watch.

The Fed’s troubling stress test calculations

12 July 2018BanksCCAR, Stress testsNick Dunbar

The Fed’s annual stress tests and capital analysis amount to a contest between the regulator’s models of large banks in a crisis and those of the banks themselves. The latest disclosures suggest troubling flaws in the Fed’s calculations.