Descending the debt mountain

17 June 2022Creditcorporate bonds, inflationNick Dunbar

Inflation-busting is likely to involve a recession, and companies are starting to reduce debt built up during the pandemic. What’s the best way to do it?

Regulators zero in on commodities

30 May 2022Bankscommodity risk, Federal Reserve, JP Morgan, nickelNick Dunbar

Bank exposures to commodities have reached record highs and in the wake of the nickel market turmoil in March, the Fed is warning about financial stability implications

Cash positioning for an upwards rate shock

3 May 2022Funds, Risk Commentarycash, Federal Reserve, inflation, money market funds, repo lendingNick Dunbar

While the Federal Reserve anticipates 2-3% interest rates will be enough to combat inflation, the choice of cash holdings for financial institutions provides a clue to their confidence in the Fed’s strategy. The evidence shows that they expect a bumpy ride.

Inflation and the corporate debt hangover

25 March 2022Credit, Risk Commentarycorporate bonds, inflationNick Dunbar

Inflation is supposed to be good for corporate bond issuers, because the real value of repayments is eroded. But what if a company’s ability to repay debt from earnings is eroded even faster?

The war and the pandemic

7 March 2022Economics, Risk CommentaryCovid-19, equities, UkraineNick Dunbar

As war unfolds in Ukraine, equity markets are reflecting the abrupt change from pandemic to war.

Barclays and the question of reliance

25 February 2022Municipal Finance, Risk CommentaryBarclays, litigation, LOBOs, Newham councilNick Dunbar

An eve-of-trial settlement between Newham Council and Barclays brings a decade-long saga to an end but leaves open a key question in UK law.

Taperchase

9 December 2021Articles, Economics, Risk Commentaryinflation, quantitative easingNick Dunbar

What happens when inflation and quantitative easing collide? Despite the taper talk, QE isn’t going away soon.

Viruses: Agents of Evolutionary Invention

2 November 2021Book Reviewsbiology, Covid-19, evolution, medicineNick Dunbar

Dozens of books have already been published on the pandemic, and many are already out of date. To appreciate Covid, it’s best to step back and read this account of viruses published four years ago.

Tales from the junk bond boom

12 October 2021Credithigh yield bondsNick Dunbar

One in two corporate bonds issued this year have been high yield, after redemptions are taken into account. Who are the winners and losers so far?

Building on sand

15 September 2021Economics, Risk CommentaryChina, corporate bonds, regulationNick Dunbar

Distress is building in corners of the Chinese offshore corporate bond market. What does this tell us about the nation’s relationship with foreign capital and investment?