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Charting China’s real estate bond meltdown

29 August 2023CreditChina, corporate bonds, distressed debt, real estateNick Dunbar

Our corporate bond tool shows that dollar-denominated Chinese real estate bonds are collectively worth just 12% of their total value two years ago. By analysing iBoxx departures and distressed prices, we firm up this analysis and look at the wider implications for China’s troubled economy.

The last rites of BP’s pension fund

14 July 2023Articles, Pensionsinterest rates, pensions, taxationNick Dunbar

BP’s pension scheme was once a leading stakeholder in UK companies, but now it’s been ‘de-risked’ and may soon be hived off to an insurer. The story encapsulates the slow decline of Britain’s private sector defined benefit pension system.

Inflation and the return of corporate borrowing

8 June 2023Credithealthcare, inflation, utilitiesNick Dunbar

High interest rates were a dampener on corporate borrowing but now the trend has reversed, led by two sectors with their own inflationary characteristics

Spares and heirs in the capital markets

18 January 2023Credit, Risk Commentarycorporate bondsNick Dunbar

At first sight, corporate bonds did badly in 2022, but aside from a handful of exceptions, this was the result of the sell-off in government debt, our analysis shows. With yields of 4-5%, investment grade bonds are now an attractive asset class.

Descending the debt mountain

17 June 2022Creditcorporate bonds, inflationNick Dunbar

Inflation-busting is likely to involve a recession, and companies are starting to reduce debt built up during the pandemic. What’s the best way to do it?

Cash positioning for an upwards rate shock

3 May 2022Funds, Risk Commentarycash, Federal Reserve, inflation, money market funds, repo lendingNick Dunbar

While the Federal Reserve anticipates 2-3% interest rates will be enough to combat inflation, the choice of cash holdings for financial institutions provides a clue to their confidence in the Fed’s strategy. The evidence shows that they expect a bumpy ride.

Inflation and the corporate debt hangover

25 March 2022Creditcorporate bonds, inflationNick Dunbar

Inflation is supposed to be good for corporate bond issuers, because the real value of repayments is eroded. But what if a company’s ability to repay debt from earnings is eroded even faster?

Taperchase

9 December 2021Articles, Economicsinflation, quantitative easingNick Dunbar

What happens when inflation and quantitative easing collide? Despite the taper talk, QE isn’t going away soon.

Tales from the junk bond boom

12 October 2021Credithigh yield bondsNick Dunbar

One in two corporate bonds issued this year have been high yield, after redemptions are taken into account. Who are the winners and losers so far?

Archegos, deleveraging and the instant bear market

12 August 2021Fundscounterparty credit risk, equities, hedge fundsNick Dunbar

Using Credit Suisse’s Archegos report, we explore how without any fundamental change in corporate earnings or economic sentiment, deleveraging mechanisms can produce an ‘instant bear market’

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