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ARM and the UK stock market’s addiction to foreign capital

6 February 2023Stocks, TechnologyARM Holdings, equities, regulation, semiconductorsNick Dunbar

The UK government is desperate for Softbank-owned ARM Holdings to have a UK listing. But reversing the long-term trend toward foreign ownership of UK assets requires a rethink of the regulatory and tax obstacles to UK share ownership

Spares and heirs in the capital markets

18 January 2023Creditcorporate bondsNick Dunbar

At first sight, corporate bonds did badly in 2022, but aside from a handful of exceptions, this was the result of the sell-off in government debt, our analysis shows. With yields of 4-5%, investment grade bonds are now an attractive asset class.

The endgame of Chinese real estate bonds

15 November 2022CreditNick Dunbar

China’s real estate developers are frozen out of the bond markets, with steep losses priced in for bonds that haven’t yet defaulted. A sketchy regulatory rescue plan is likely to be too little, too late to make a difference.

The strong dollar investment puzzle

7 September 2022Stockscurrencies, FXNick Dunbar

Now that the dollar has reached 30-40 year highs against major currencies, how should non-US investors think about US stocks? We’ve built some new visualisation tools to help analyse the problem.

Descending the debt mountain

17 June 2022Creditcorporate bonds, inflationNick Dunbar

Inflation-busting is likely to involve a recession, and companies are starting to reduce debt built up during the pandemic. What’s the best way to do it?

Cash positioning for an upwards rate shock

3 May 2022Fundscash, Federal Reserve, inflation, money market funds, repo lendingNick Dunbar

While the Federal Reserve anticipates 2-3% interest rates will be enough to combat inflation, the choice of cash holdings for financial institutions provides a clue to their confidence in the Fed’s strategy. The evidence shows that they expect a bumpy ride.

Inflation and the corporate debt hangover

25 March 2022Creditcorporate bonds, inflationNick Dunbar

Inflation is supposed to be good for corporate bond issuers, because the real value of repayments is eroded. But what if a company’s ability to repay debt from earnings is eroded even faster?

The war and the pandemic

7 March 2022StocksCovid-19, equities, UkraineNick Dunbar

As war unfolds in Ukraine, equity markets are reflecting the abrupt change from pandemic to war.

Taperchase

9 December 2021Articles, Economicsinflation, quantitative easingNick Dunbar

What happens when inflation and quantitative easing collide? Despite the taper talk, QE isn’t going away soon.

Tales from the junk bond boom

12 October 2021Credithigh yield bondsNick Dunbar

One in two corporate bonds issued this year have been high yield, after redemptions are taken into account. Who are the winners and losers so far?

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