Battle of the yield curves

30 December 2024Economicssovereign debtNick Dunbar

Bond investors have started to notice France’s political deadlock, and we show the impact in a new animated yield curve visualisation

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Cargo ships on fire off the shoulder of Africa

26 February 2024EconomicsInternational Monetary Fund, sovereign debtNick Dunbar

A new visualisation of IMF lending this century tracks geopolitical trends and allows the effectiveness of IMF support to be assessed.

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Sovereign debt bar chart race

19 January 2024EconomicsNick Dunbar

How the 20 largest sovereign bond issuers have changed over time

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Bank hedging throws spanner into ECB monetary policy

19 December 2023EconomicsBNP Paribas, European Central Bank, interest rate swaps, quantitative easing, Societe GeneraleNick Dunbar

Bank hedging strategies and the European Central Bank’s reversal of pandemic-era subsidised bank loans showed that quantitative tightening is not just about selling bond holdings.

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Conditioning and the Bank of England’s credibility problem

30 June 2023EconomicsBank of England, central banking, Federal Reserve, inflation, interest rate swapsNick Dunbar

The Bank of England uses forward rates derived from the swap market to forecast future base rates. This approach is flawed, and has contributed to the Bank’s loss of credibility in the fight against inflation.

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When linkers bite back

21 October 2022Economics, Risk Commentaryforecasting, inflation, inflation-linked bonds, national accountsNick Dunbar

Inflation-linked bonds are proving costly to governments that issued them, and in the case of the UK, markets imply the pain will last for years to come.

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Gilt trip

29 September 2022Economicsgilts, pension funds, sovereign debt, United KingdomNick Dunbar

How a populist fiscal experiment brought market mayhem and ended bond investors’ patience – at the worst possible time

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An introduction to the Risky Finance currency tool

7 September 2022EconomicsNick Dunbar

We use statistical tools to analyse how 38 currencies performed against the US dollar

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Taperchase

9 December 2021Articles, Economicsinflation, quantitative easingNick Dunbar

What happens when inflation and quantitative easing collide? Despite the taper talk, QE isn’t going away soon.

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Building on sand

15 September 2021Credit, EconomicsChina, corporate bonds, regulationNick Dunbar

Distress is building in corners of the Chinese offshore corporate bond market. What does this tell us about the nation’s relationship with foreign capital and investment?

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