HomeEconomics

Conditioning and the Bank of England’s credibility problem

30 June 2023EconomicsBank of England, central banking, Federal Reserve, inflation, interest rate swapsNick Dunbar

The Bank of England uses forward rates derived from the swap market to forecast future base rates. This approach is flawed, and has contributed to the Bank’s loss of credibility in the fight against inflation.

The endgame of Chinese real estate bonds

15 November 2022EconomicsNick Dunbar

China’s real estate developers are frozen out of the bond markets, with steep losses priced in for bonds that haven’t yet defaulted. A sketchy regulatory rescue plan is likely to be too little, too late to make a difference.

When linkers bite back

21 October 2022Economics, Risk Commentaryforecasting, inflation, inflation-linked bonds, national accountsNick Dunbar

Inflation-linked bonds are proving costly to governments that issued them, and in the case of the UK, markets imply the pain will last for years to come.

Gilt trip

29 September 2022Economics, Risk Commentarygilts, pension funds, sovereign debt, United KingdomNick Dunbar

How a populist fiscal experiment brought market mayhem and ended bond investors’ patience – at the worst possible time

An introduction to the Risky Finance currency tool

7 September 2022EconomicsNick Dunbar

We use statistical tools to analyse how 38 currencies performed against the US dollar

The strong dollar investment puzzle

7 September 2022Economicscurrencies, FXNick Dunbar

Now that the dollar has reached 30-40 year highs against major currencies, how should non-US investors think about US stocks? We’ve built some new visualisation tools to help analyse the problem.

The war and the pandemic

7 March 2022EconomicsCovid-19, equities, UkraineNick Dunbar

As war unfolds in Ukraine, equity markets are reflecting the abrupt change from pandemic to war.

Taperchase

9 December 2021Articles, Economicsinflation, quantitative easingNick Dunbar

What happens when inflation and quantitative easing collide? Despite the taper talk, QE isn’t going away soon.

Building on sand

15 September 2021EconomicsChina, corporate bonds, regulationNick Dunbar

Distress is building in corners of the Chinese offshore corporate bond market. What does this tell us about the nation’s relationship with foreign capital and investment?

Making debt disappear

20 January 2021EconomicsCovid-19, modern monetary theory, quantitative easingNick Dunbar

Developed nations face ballooning post-pandemic debt burdens. In a QE world, does that actually matter?

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