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HomeRisk Commentary

JP Morgan swallows First Republic Bank

5 May 2023Banks, Risk CommentaryAccounting, bank resolution, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Reserve, interest rates, JP MorganNick Dunbar

Six months ago we warned about held-to-maturity bond losses at US banks, but now the giants that hedged the risk are hoovering up depositors while unhedged regional banks are in crisis

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How generative AI made Nvidia a giant of the S&P 500

5 May 2023Risk Commentary, TechnologyAI, artificial intelligence, equities, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, semiconductorsNick Dunbar

11 years ago, Geoff Hinton and two grad students used a pair of GPU chips to win an image classification contest. Now these chips are powering the generative AI boom and have doubled Nvidia’s market cap.

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ARM and the UK stock market’s addiction to foreign capital

6 February 2023Risk Commentary, TechnologyARM Holdings, equities, regulation, semiconductorsNick Dunbar

The UK government is desperate for Softbank-owned ARM Holdings to have a UK listing. But reversing the long-term trend toward foreign ownership of UK assets requires a rethink of the regulatory and tax obstacles to UK share ownership

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Spares and heirs in the capital markets

18 January 2023Credit, Risk Commentarycorporate bondsNick Dunbar

At first sight, corporate bonds did badly in 2022, but aside from a handful of exceptions, this was the result of the sell-off in government debt, our analysis shows. With yields of 4-5%, investment grade bonds are now an attractive asset class.

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Banks can’t hide from the pain of underwater bond investments

29 November 2022Banks, Risk CommentaryAccounting, government bonds, interest rate risk, investments, mortgage-backed securitiesNick Dunbar

The biggest US banks amassed $2.2 trillion of government and mortgage bond investments, but now the portfolios are underwater and banks must hold them to avoid recording losses. This will have a lasting effect on deposits and the impact of Fed policy.

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When linkers bite back

21 October 2022Economics, Risk Commentaryforecasting, inflation, inflation-linked bonds, national accountsNick Dunbar

Inflation-linked bonds are proving costly to governments that issued them, and in the case of the UK, markets imply the pain will last for years to come.

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Gilt trip

29 September 2022Economics, Risk Commentarygilts, pension funds, sovereign debt, United KingdomNick Dunbar

How a populist fiscal experiment brought market mayhem and ended bond investors’ patience – at the worst possible time

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Cash positioning for an upwards rate shock

3 May 2022Funds, Risk Commentarycash, Federal Reserve, inflation, money market funds, repo lendingNick Dunbar

While the Federal Reserve anticipates 2-3% interest rates will be enough to combat inflation, the choice of cash holdings for financial institutions provides a clue to their confidence in the Fed’s strategy. The evidence shows that they expect a bumpy ride.

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