HomeRisk Commentary

Understanding Goldman’s $687m trading loss

30 December 2024Banks, Risk CommentaryBasel rules, Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs, Value-at-riskNick Dunbar

The bank may look profitable to shareholders, but disclosures compiled by Risky Finance made it possible to uncover the story of this trading loss at Goldman Sachs

Dimon rolls trading dice with excess capital

13 June 2024Banks, Risk Commentarybank capital, Basel rules, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Reserve, JP Morgan, share buybacks, Stress tests, tradingNick Dunbar

The Fed softened its stress tests, which freed up bank capital, then came the Basel Endgame which would eat it all up again. Now, with the Endgame in doubt, JP Morgan has deployed its excess capital in trading bets

The self-fulfilling prophecy of public sector pensions

22 March 2024Pensions, Risk Commentaryeducation, pensions, public policy, schoolsNick Dunbar

How costly are unfunded public sector defined benefit pensions? The question looms large in the economic future of the UK.

Charting China’s real estate bond meltdown

29 August 2023Credit, Risk CommentaryChina, corporate bonds, distressed debt, real estateNick Dunbar

Our corporate bond tool shows that dollar-denominated Chinese real estate bonds are collectively worth just 12% of their total value two years ago. By analysing iBoxx departures and distressed prices, we firm up this analysis and look at the wider implications for China’s troubled economy.

The last rites of BP’s pension fund

14 July 2023Articles, Pensions, Risk Commentaryinterest rates, pensions, taxationNick Dunbar

BP’s pension scheme was once a leading stakeholder in UK companies, but now it’s been ‘de-risked’ and may soon be hived off to an insurer. The story encapsulates the slow decline of Britain’s private sector defined benefit pension system.

How generative AI made Nvidia a giant of the S&P 500

5 May 2023Risk Commentary, TechnologyAI, artificial intelligence, equities, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, semiconductorsNick Dunbar

11 years ago, Geoff Hinton and two grad students used a pair of GPU chips to win an image classification contest. Now these chips are powering the generative AI boom and have doubled Nvidia’s market cap.

Banks can’t hide from the pain of underwater bond investments

29 November 2022Banks, Risk CommentaryAccounting, government bonds, interest rate risk, investments, mortgage-backed securitiesNick Dunbar

The biggest US banks amassed $2.2 trillion of government and mortgage bond investments, but now the portfolios are underwater and banks must hold them to avoid recording losses. This will have a lasting effect on deposits and the impact of Fed policy.