Tambora: The Eruption That Changed the World

13 October 2015Articles, Book Reviewsclimate change, historyNick Dunbar

by Gillen D'Arcy Wood (Princeton University Press 2014) In my last year at Harvard, before I decided to drop out of the PhD program and pursue other things, I took a graduate meteorology class. The class teacher, Brian Farrell, was doing what other professors did and quietly sounded students out about taking him on as…

Confidence, Doubt and Climate Change

4 October 2013Articlesclimate change, physics, public policyNick Dunbar

24 years ago I was a graduate student studying earth and planetary science at Harvard. My advisor, Professor Mike McElroy, was an expert on atmospheric chemistry and I helped him teach a course to 300 undergrads in what was known as the 'core curriculum'. As a special treat for the students, McElroy invited his friend,…

The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction

28 July 2013Book Reviewsclimate change, forecasting, gambling, Nate Silver, probability, The Signal And The NoiseNick Dunbar

Nate Silver Allen Lane 2012 It's hard not to be impressed by Nate Silver. He is a quant journalist who has mastered diverse areas such as poker playing, sports analysis and psephology. He showcased his election forecasting skills in his FiveThirtyEight blog that was picked up by the New York Times. That propelled him into…