Battle of the yield curves

30 December 2024Economicssovereign debtNick Dunbar

Bond investors have started to notice France’s political deadlock, and we show the impact in a new animated yield curve visualisation

Cargo ships on fire off the shoulder of Africa

26 February 2024EconomicsInternational Monetary Fund, sovereign debtNick Dunbar

A new visualisation of IMF lending this century tracks geopolitical trends and allows the effectiveness of IMF support to be assessed.

Gilt trip

29 September 2022Economicsgilts, pension funds, sovereign debt, United KingdomNick Dunbar

How a populist fiscal experiment brought market mayhem and ended bond investors’ patience – at the worst possible time

Italian derivatives opera

10 February 2021Articlesinterest rate swaps, litigation, sovereign debt, swaptionsNick Dunbar

Italian courts are prosecuting former officials involved in derivatives terminated by Morgan Stanley nine years ago. But the US bank actually did Italy a favour, unlike the country’s other sovereign counterparties.

Goldman and Greece revisited

12 March 2012Articles, Banksderivatives, eurozone, Goldman Sachs, Greece, sovereign debtNick Dunbar

Most journalism is a hit-and-run affair. We talk to sources, check facts, agree quotes, wrestle with editors and lawyers; the excitement builds up to the point the story appears...and then we drop the whole thing and move on. When I published my story on Goldman Sachs and Greece in July 2003, the almost-universal reaction was:…

Goldman swap shows Greece was Europe’s subprime nation

24 January 2012Articles, Banksderivatives, eurozone, Goldman Sachs, sovereign debtNick Dunbar

All the talk about Greece trying to persuade its creditors to swap some once-valuable bonds for new ones worth much less reminds me of another Greek swap that I wrote about in 2003. That deal with Goldman Sachs, designed to conceal part of the country's ballooning debt-to-GDP ratio in order to conform to the rules…

We Need to Talk About Sovereign Credit Default Swaps

31 October 2011Articlesderivatives, eurozone, sovereign debtNick Dunbar

You've seen the movie. Some bankers become the proud parents of a new-born financial instrument. At first, little CDS seems like everything a parent could want "“ a hedge against the downsides of middle-class existence. But as CDS gets older, disturbing signs appear. CDS is too knowing, too negative "“ focused on the financial death…